实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Exploring the factors that drive consumers to use contactless delivery services in the context of the continued COVID-19 pandemic

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the launch of contactless delivery services. This research integrates resource matching, service quality evaluation, and perceived value theories to explore the factors that promote the use contactless delivery services. The data was obtained through questionnaire surveys, and research hypotheses were verified through the structural equation modelling approach. With the exception of convenience, the results show that privacy, reliability, security, and flexibility have a significantly positive effect on consumers' intention to use “contactless” delivery services through consumers' perceived value. This study contributes to the literature by introducing theoretical frameworks from various paradigms and enriches the academic research on existing theoretical structure models. It also helps optimize resource allocation and realize the social environment related to coexisting with the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Post-script—Retail forecasting: Research and practice

This note updates the 2019 review article “Retail forecasting: Research and practice” in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and the substantial new research on machine-learning algorithms, when applied to retail. It offers new conclusions and challenges for both research and practice in retail demand forecasting.     

The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence

The Bullionist Controversy in the United Kingdom is one of the first debates about the determination of the price level and the exchange rate under a paper money standard. Despite the importance of the debate in the development of monetary theory, there remains little empirical evidence that uses modern, multivariate time series techniques. The evidence that does exist provides support for the Anti‐Bullionist position. The purpose of this paper is to review the debate and develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of capturing key features of the nineteenth‐century British financial system. The model is estimated using Bayesian procedures to test the competing hypotheses. The paper provides support for the Bullionist position.     

水源地突发水污染政府应急预留水量需求预测

近年来,随着工业化和产业化的快速发展,水源地突发水污染事件频发。为应对紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求,保障经济社会稳定发展,政府需要安排一部分应急预留水量。如何合理预测政府应急预留水量的规模是一个值得探讨的课题。提出了一种基于案例推理技术的政府应急预留水量需求预测方法,具体思路是:借助于案例库,利用主成分分析法从众多影响水源地突发水污染事件的因素中提取出两两不相关的因子,以此作为案例的特征属性,基于加权曼哈顿距离测算相似度,依此得到匹配案例,进而测算政府应急预留水量。以太湖流域常州地区水源地为例,进行政府预留水量需求量的预测与分析。该方法可以为政府应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供相关理论知识。     

空间目标的联合矩阵束极点估计

极点作为谐振区雷达目标的最主要电磁特性，具有很大的空间目标识别前景。但是在使用频域观测数据提取目标极点时，存在虚假极点和估计精度问题。针对上述问题，首先通过加窗和截断改进了后时响应信号的获取流程，抑制了虚假极点影响；然后采用最小描述长度法（MDL）估计极点个数，避免了定阶错误引起的虚假极点；最后采用联合矩阵束法估计极点，有效减少了单角度数据估计极点时存在的遗漏极点和虚假极点问题。FEKO软件验证表明，所提算法具有更高的精度和抗噪能力。     

We share; we connect: how shared brand consumption influences relational brand connections

This research examines how married consumers form relational brand connections. Findings from two studies contribute to research on identity‐related brand consumption by showcasing how shared brand consumption and marital satisfaction influence relational brand connections and the perceived importance of the brand to the marital relationship. This research has important theoretical contributions and managerial implications. From a theoretical perspective, the authors show how consumers incorporate brands into their interpersonal relationships through shared brand consumption and that relational brand connections influence brand‐related outcomes, such as brand attitudes, purchase intentions, brand affect, and brand separation distress. From a managerial perspective, the findings highlight the importance of considering relational aspects of brand consumption when designing branding strategy and advertising appeals.     

Structural holes and hedge fund return comovement: evidence from network-connected stock hedge funds in China

Using data from a new hedge fund database, we examine the impact of social networks on the return comovement of stock hedge funds in China. We use structural holes in the college alumni networks of managers to measure the managers’ social network positions. We perform an empirical analysis on a sample of 3,012 hedge fund products in China from 2010 to 2017. We find that greater structural holes are associated with higher return comovement. The positive impact of the structural holes on return comovement is not affected by market cycles, a manager's major in college, or his or her abilities.     

结构嵌入、动态能力与组织绩效:一个混合模型

供应链企业对外部关系网络的结构性嵌入，有利于其获取更多异质性资源，这为组织绩效提升奠定了基础。在构建结构嵌入、动态能力与组织绩效关系混合模型的基础上，实证检验了结构嵌入对组织绩效的影响。研究结果表明：结构嵌入与组织绩效间存在显著的倒“U”型关系，即结构嵌入具有“拐点”效应，过高水平的结构嵌入不利于组织绩效提升；环境动态性在结构嵌入对组织绩效的影响中发挥有中介的调节作用；学习能力和创新能力在结构嵌入对组织绩效的影响中存在有调节的中介效应。